Rising Foreclosure Rates Point
To a Normalizing Home Market
By Danielle Reed
From The Wall Street Journal
As home-price appreciation has tapered
off and mortgage rates have risen, foreclosures have started to pick up,
with the Midwest region hit hardest.
The rate of foreclosure -- the process by
which banks can ultimately take back the properties that secure
mortgages -- is a key indicator that real-estate analysts and investors
use as a signal of market distress.
In the past several years, foreclosures
across the U.S. have been hovering around historically low levels, as
home prices have risen nearly 50% in five years. This appreciation
enabled borrowers to sell their homes relatively easily to resolve
mortgage difficulties.
Now, a survey of the latest data
confirms, that is starting to change, with an uptick across the U.S. in
foreclosure rates and mortgage delinquencies (or late mortgage
payments). But even the new higher rates of foreclosure and
delinquencies are still low in historic terms.
Nationally, the number of mortgage loans
that entered some stage of foreclosure rose to 117,259 in February, up
68% from the same month a year earlier, according to Irvine, Calif.,
online foreclosure-data service RealtyTrac.
Delinquencies are up as well. Data
provider LoanPerformance, a subsidiary of First American Real Estate
Solutions, reported that 3% of the most vulnerable loans -- those made
to borrowers with less than a stellar credit history -- were 90 days
delinquent in February. That is up from 2.84% in February 2005.
Meanwhile, 90-day delinquencies for loans made to borrowers with better
credit were up to 0.76% in February, from 0.67% a year earlier.
The rise in delinquencies isn't
surprising, according to Doug Duncan, the Mortgage Bankers Association
chief economist. In its own quarterly survey, for the fourth quarter of
2005, the association showed a 0.26 percentage point uptick in the rate
of mortgage delinquencies as well as a 0.01 percentage point increase in
the foreclosure rate from the third quarter.
The MBA has "been expecting an uptick in
delinquencies due to a number of factors," Mr. Duncan said in the
release, including greater prevalence of riskier adjustable-rate and
subprime mortgages, as well as higher interest rates and energy costs.
Digging a little further into the data
shows that three states in the Midwest consistently have among the
highest rates of loan foreclosures and delinquencies: Indiana, Ohio and
Michigan.
The reasons behind the higher rates of
foreclosures and delinquencies vary somewhat, but there are two primary
drivers, said Lou Barnes, a partner with mortgage banking firm Boulder
West Financial Services in Boulder, Colo.
One is family economic distress, often
related to job loss or divorce. Another is a slowing pace of home-price
gains. And what the states hit hardest by mortgage foreclosures have in
common is relatively low home-price appreciation (compared with the
national average) over the past few years, typically combined with
below-trend job growth.
In Ohio, 3.22% of loans were in
foreclosure at the end of the fourth quarter, according to MBA data. The
national level was 0.99%. Indiana had 2.75% of loans in foreclosure, and
Michigan 1.75%. The entire "East North Central" region of the country,
which includes Indiana, Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and Wisconsin, had
2.05% of its loans in foreclosure, the highest regional level in the
nation, according to the MBA.
Still, even with the increase in
foreclosures and delinquencies, the numbers are generally not alarming
to economists, as they are rising from historically low levels. The
market is simply returning to more typical levels, this line of thinking
goes.
|